欢迎参加此次会议
“创造性社会中社会行为现象的建模和模拟 – 2022”

关于会议

在过去的几十年里,研究人员越来越多地在社会科学和人文科领域应用计算模型。MSBC-2022会议旨在创建一个开放的小组,让对计算机科学与社会科学和人文科学的结合感兴趣的研究人员和从业人员进行有效的沟通,以加强对社会经济现实的模拟和建模问题的关注、

会议范围

此次跨学科会议汇集了来自社会科学和人文领域(如组织科学,交流行动理论,管理科学,当代经济科学,社会复杂性,社会学,媒体研究等)、运筹学、计算智能、基于Agent的模拟、应用数学、经济物理学及各自应用领域的研究人员。

会议历史

  • 创造性社会中社会行为现象的建模和模拟 (MSBC-2019)

    国际会议-欧洲小型会议
    立陶宛维尔纽斯
    官网链接
  • 创造性社会中社会行为现象的建模和模拟 (MSBC-2022)

    第二国际欧洲会议
    立陶宛维尔纽斯
    第三次征文
  • 创造性社会中社会行为现象的建模和模拟 (MSBC-2024)

    第三届国际会议
    中国哈尔滨
    详情将在稍后提供

会议举办方

协办机构

国际项目委员会

Prof. Dr. Nitin Agarwal,
University of Arkansas at Little Rock, USA
Chairman

国际程序委员会成员

– Prof. Fuad Aleskerov, Higher School of Economics, Russia
– Prof. Dr. Elena Andreeva, Hanover Medical School, Germany
– Prof Dr. Akaki Arsenashvili, Tbilisi State University, Georgia
– Prof. Dr. George Arthopoulos, Cyprus Institute, Cyprus
– Prof. Adil Bagirov, Federation University Australia, Australia
– Prof. Dr. Alexis Belianin, Higher School of Economics, Russia
– Prof. Dr. Jens Bley, University of Hamburg, Germany
– Prof. Dr. Harvey Brenner, University of North Texas, USA
– Prof. Dr. Cathal MacSwiney Brugha, University College Dublin, Ireland
– Prof. Vitalijus Denisovas, Klaipeda University, Lithuania
– Prof. Dorien DeTombe, EWG on Ethics and OR, Netherlands
– Dr. Yan Jun, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), China
– Prof. Dr. Ismo Koponen, University of Helsinki, Finland
– Prof. Surya Kumacheva, University of St. Peterburg, Russia
– Prof. Walter Leal Filho, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Germany
– Prof. Nelson Maculan, University Federal of Rio de Janeiro, Brasil
– Prof. Oleksandr Makarenko, Kyiv Technical University, Ukraine
– Prof. Vladimir Mazalov, Petrozavodsk University, Russia
– Dr. Zhinan Wang, Harbin Engineering University, China
– Prof. Dr. Marianne Ping-Huang, University of Aarhus, Denmark
– Dr. Maxim Rybachuk, Financial University, Russia
– Prof. Leonidas Sakalauskas, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Lithuania
– Prof. Dr. Svetlana Shchepetova, Financial University, Russia
– Prof. Roman Slowinski, Poznan University of Technology, Poland
– Prof. Alina Steblyanskaya, Harbin Engineering University, China
– Prof. Alexis Tsoukias, Paris Dauphine University, France
– Prof. Adilson Xavier, University Federal Rio de Janeiro, Brasil

组织委员会

Prof. Leonidas Sakalauskas,
立陶宛维尔纽斯技术大学
主席

组委会成员

Vytautas Dulskis, Vilnius University, Lithuania
Vladimir Mazalov, Institute of Applied Mathematical Research, KarRC of the RAS, Russia
Maxim Rybachuk, Financial University, Russia
Leonidas Sakalauskas, Klaipeda University, Lithuania
Alina Steblyanskaya, Harbin Engineering University, China
Katerina Shulla, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Germany

主要讲者

Prof. Leonidas Sakalauskas,
立陶宛维尔纽斯技术大学

王志楠 (Dr. Zhinan Wang),
经济和管理学院哈尔滨工程大学

Prof. Dr. Nitin Agarwal,
美国阿肯色大学小石城分校

Prof. Dr. Vladimir Mazalov,
俄罗斯科学院卡累利阿科学中心应用数学研究所

Prof. Dr. Walter Leal,
德国汉堡应用科技大学

Prof. Dr. Yaroslav Sergeyev,
意大利卡拉布里亚大学

会议计划

登记

特邀讲座

Leonidas Sakalauskas
(Vilnius, Lithuania)

Prof. Leonidas Sakalauskas,
Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Lithuania

Operational Research behind modeling and simulation of social-behavioural phenomena in creative societies

The application of computational models to study issues in the social sciences and humanities has been undergoing rapid development during the last decades. OR was heavily and effectively used throughout the many historical courses, emphasizing  the role of game theory and rational decision making in shaping the strategic thinking in politics and business. It is natural to assume that in the current historical time, when many delicate socio-political challenges have to be dealt with once again, it is important to resort to OR to overcome those challenges.
The operationalisation of social-behavioural phenomena, appearing in nowadays life, in order to develop a paradigm of rational choice for the efficient understanding of their nature and relevant decision making, enables bridging OR with social sciences and humanities. The creation of such a paradigm on the basis of the theory of structural equation modelling (SEM), multi-agent modelling and game theory, together with data science and mathematical sociology methods, allows the development of data-driven operationalisation for evidence-based solutions.

Zhinan Wang
(Harbin, China)

Dr. Zhinan Wang,
Harbin Engineering University, China

Belt and Road’ modelling and simulation cases under Business statistics course framework

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a massive development plan in scale and scope. It aims at facilitating China’s connectivity with the rest of the world through trade, investment, and infrastructure projects. Therefore, understanding the human and social dynamics and socio-behavioral tendencies through Belt and Road development, and quantifying, and mapping the spatial-temporal distribution of environmental vulnerability caused by natural and man-made impacts are needed for understanding environmental protection and Road restoration issues. Understanding the trends in ecological, cultural and behavioural evolution and their driving factors is critical to revealing changes in ecosystem's structure and function. However, less is known about the nonlinear relationship between greening trends and statistical instrumentation.
Thus, we want to share with you HEU experience concerning new Business Statistics course implementation. In the example of a practical case concerning Belt and Road initiative development, we show for students modeling processes, the students should learn how to calculate probability and its distributions and understand their implementations. On the example of Belt and Road cases, we show the students the essential concepts of Business Statistics course, and some techniques of descriptive statistics. We focus on organizing data by visualization and analyzing data by some numerical measurements. After learning descriptive statistics, the students guided to a miraculous probability and sampling world. They are the foundation of statistical inference. We will begin with the historic outlook of probability to help us remember the probability theory. We also learn sampling to collect data and the theorems of sampling distribution. After that we finally come to the inferential statistics. Parameter estimation and hypothesis testing are the primary knowledge that we will mainly discuss. Students master how to use the sample data to estimate or to test the population with the desired reliability.

茶歇

(S1) Models of interaction between diverse social systems – Part 1

Chairman
  • Maksim Rybachuk (Financial University, Russia)
 
List of participants
  • 11.20 – 11.45. Victor Byvshev, The econometric modeling of the adaptation of the Russian economy to the sanctions of Western countries
  • 11.45 – 12.10. Dorien DeTombe, Compram methodology support for complex policy making
  • 12.10 – 12.35. Artem Denisov, Applying improved Free Disposal Hull methodology to manage effective social development
  • 12.35 – 13.00. Ludmila Borisova and Mira Fridman, Dynamic approach to modeling hierarchical conflict situations in small groups

茶歇

(S2) Models of interaction between diverse social systems – Part 2

Chairman
  • Maksim Rybachuk (Financial University, Russia)

List of participants
  • 14.00 – 14.25. Alexandr Mishchenko, Oleg Kosorukov and Olga Sviridova, Dynamic models of transport resources management
  • 14.25 – 14.50. Junrui Yu, Reverse spillover effect of cross-border M & A and upgrading of manufacturing industry in global value chain
  • 14.50 – 15.15. Maksim Rybachuk, Behavioral model of interaction between economic agents and the institutional environment

茶歇

(S3) Structural equation modelling behind operationalization

Chairman
  • Leonidas Sakalauskas (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Lithuania)

List of participants
  • 16.10 – 16.35. Leonidas Sakalauskas, Structural equation modelling behind operationalisation in the social sciences and humanities
  • 16.35 – 17.00. Vytautas Dulskis, Efficient Maximum Likelihood Batch Estimation With Pure Time Series Data of a One-Dimensional Cumulative Structural Equation Model
  • 17.00 – 17.25. Mindaugas Jakutis, Indicators of Ethnic and Civic Nationality
  • 17.25 – 17.50. Adilson Xavier, The Accelerated Hyperbolic Smoothing Method

欢迎晚会

登记

特邀讲座

Nitin Agarwal
(Little Rock, USA)

Prof. Dr. Nitin Agarwal,
University of Arkansas at Little Rock, USA

Networks and Narratives Characterizing Multiplatform Influence
Campaigns to Strengthen Socio-cognitive Security

With the proliferation of smart devices, mobile applications, and social network platforms, the social side effects of these technologies have become more profound, especially in social and political disintegration. Several journalistic and academic investigations have reported that modern communication platforms such as social media are strategically used to coordinate cyber influence campaigns. Several researchers have studied these campaigns and identified various tactics, techniques, and procedures used by various online deviant groups, e.g., online propagandists groups or extremist/terrorist group sympathizers. Various social media platforms utilize research findings to detect and regulate some of these campaigns, however, the techniques that are used evolve and adapt to go undetected. This is a growing problem. This session aims to have a scientific discussion among experts who study deviant activities on social media, including but not limited to, detection of deviant/disruptive behaviors on social media; misinformation detection, identification, and dissemination; case studies of misinformation; etc. This includes the following topics:
- Misinformation, disinformation, rumor, propaganda, influence campaign detection;
- Tactics and strategies used to conduct misinformation;
disinformation, rumor, propaganda, influence campaigns;
- Deviant behaviors on social media platforms (cyber threats, cybercrime, cyber bullying, trolling, spamming, etc.);
- Coordination campaigns;
- Cyber Flash Mobs;
- Algorithmic manipulation such as exploiting recommendation bias;
- Detection/modeling of inorganic behaviors (bots, botnets, social bots, etc.) and their evolution dynamics;
- Hate Speech (toxic, polarizing, or disruptive content);
- Computational extraction of narratives used in misinformation, disinformation, rumor, propaganda, influence campaigns.

Vladimir Mazalov
(Petrozavodsk, Russia)

Vladimir Mazalov,
Institute of Applied Mathematical Research, KarRC of the RAS, Russia

Equilibrium in the strategic bargaining

The Rubinstein’s bargaining model, proposed in 1982, provided a convenient tool for solving game-theoretic problems about bidding by two persons with alternating offers on an infinite time axis. The main feature was the discounting factor d, which did not allow the game to last indefinitely, i.e. the closer d is to 0, the more impatient the players are and the faster they will agree to any offer. On the contrary, if the value d is close to 1, then the players are patient and will negotiate until they come to the most favorable offer for them. In [Baron, Ferejohn, 1989], a model of sequential multilateral negotiations with a majority rule was proposed. The game that was reviewed is a standard game “split the dollar”, in which n players, whose turn is chosen randomly, make suggestions on how to divide a pie of a fixed size, and agreement requires the consent of a simple majority. It is shown that a sub-game perfect equilibrium exists in the class of stationary strategies. Then, articles [Eraslan, 2002; Cho, Duggan, 2003; Banks, Duggan, 2006; Predtetchinski, 2011; Cardona, Ponsati, 2007, 2011] were devoted to the expansion of this direction for different applied problems.
We present a game-theoretic model of competitive decision on a meeting time. There are n players who are negotiating the meeting time. The players' utilities are represented by linear unimodal functions. The maximum values of the utility functions are located at the points i/(n-1), i=0,...,n-1. The final decision will be done if all participants accept the proposal. Players take turns 1, then 2, then 3, …, n. We assume that after each negotiation session, the utility functions of all players will decrease proportionally to d. We will look for a solution in the class of stationary strategies, when it is assumed that the decisions of the players will not change during the negotiation time, i.e. the player i will make the same offer at step i and at subsequent steps n+i, 2n+i, etc. We use the backward induction method. To do this, assume that player n is looking for his best responce, knowing player 1's proposal, then player (n-1) is looking for his best responce, knowing player n's solution, etc. The subgame perfect equilibrium in the class of stationary strategies is found in analytical form.

茶歇

(S4) Complexity modelling for sustainable development goals – Part 1

Chairman
  • Alina Steblyanskaya (Harbin Engineering University)

List of participants
  • 11.20 – 11.45. Vladimor Bocharnikov, Social Code in Contradictions of the Human Civilization Model in the Digital Age: Does Sustainable Development Goals will Work?
  • 11.45 – 12.10. Boyu Liu, China‘s urban sustainable transportation policy under the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"
  • 12.10 – 12.35. Danial Shafique, Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reduction Efficiency and Growth Potential (A Case of Pakistan and China)
  • 12.35 – 13.00. Saqib Jawad, A Study on the Impact of Mechanism of “Belt and Road Initiative” on the Sustainable Development of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor

茶歇

(S5) Complexity modelling for sustainable development goals – Part 2

Chairman
  • Alina Steblyanskaya (Harbin Engineering University)

List of participants
  • 14.00 – 14.25. Jun Yan, The efficiency and resilience of China economy under the biophysical economic model point of view
  • 14.25 – 14.50. Jialin Zhu, Research on the evaluation of the core competitiveness of China Railway Companies and the promotion strategy
  • 14.50 – 15.15. Alina Steblyanskaya, China carbon neutrality goal and growth potential system modeling
  • 15.15 – 15.40. Maksim Vaslev, How Coronavirus Pandemics (COVID-19) Influences Chinese Economic Sustainability

茶歇

(S6) Statistical Data Analysis in Social Research

Chairman
  • Daiva Bubelienė (Kaunas University of Applied Sciences, Lithuania)

List of participants
  • 16.10 – 16.35. Daiva Bubeliene, Quantification of textual responses to open-ended questions in Big Data projects
  • 16.35 – 17.00. Gediminas Merkys and Daiva Bubeliene, Likert Means versus Yes Percentages? Optimal representation of survey results at the level of psychometric scales
  • 17.00 – 17.25. Timofei Nestik, Dynamics of the long-term orientation in Russian society over the past 100 years: results of the analysis of the Russian subcorpus of Google Books Ngram
  • 17.25 – 17.50. Dong Zhang, Statistical analysis and enlightenment of the main indicators of railway transportation development in China and Russia

会议晚宴

登记

特邀讲座

Walter Leal
(Hamburg, Germany)

Prof. Dr. Walter Leal,
Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Germany

Education for sustainable development: trends and perspectives

The presentation will outline the importance of and relevance of sustainable development for higher education institutions, and outlines some of the steps which are being taken, to include it as part of university programmes.

Yaroslav Sergeyev
(Rende, Italy)

Prof. Dr. Yaroslav Sergeyev,
University of Calabria, Italy

Numerical infinities and infinitesimals
How primitive counting systems can change our perception of Infinity

In this lecture, some classical paradoxes of infinity such as Galileo’s paradox, Hilbert’s paradox of the Grand Hotel, and the rectangle paradox of Torricelli are considered. It is shown that the surprising counting systems of Amazonian and Australian tribes, working with only three numerals (one, two, many) can help us to change our perception of these paradoxes. A recently introduced methodology allowing one to work with finite, infinite, and infinitesimal numbers in a unique computational framework not only theoretically but also numerically is briefly described (see [1]). This methodology is actively used nowadays in numerous applications in pure and applied mathematics and computer science as well as in teaching (see, e.g., [1-3]). This methodology gives the possibility to consider the paradoxes listed above in a new constructive light (see, e.g., [4,5]) showing so that even primitive cultures can give rise to very interesting developments in the modern sophisticated cultural and scientific life.
The Infinity Calculator using the Infinity Computer technology (patented in several countries) is presented during the talk. Reviews, videos, more than 60 papers of authors from several research areas using this methodology in their applications can be downloaded from http://www.theinfinitycomputer.com. The web page https://www.numericalinfinities.com developed at the University of East Anglia contains materials related to teaching this methodology in colleges in UK and Italy.

Selected references

  1. Sergeyev Ya.D. (2017). Numerical infinities and infinitesimals: Methodology, applications, and repercussions on two Hilbert problems, EMS Surveys in Mathematical Sciences, 4(2), 219–320.
  2. Sergeyev Ya.D., De Leone R. (eds.). (2022). Numerical Infinities and Infinitesimals in Optimization, Springer.
  3. Nasr L. (2022). The effect of Arithmetic of Infinity Methodology on students’ beliefs of infinity, Mediterranean Journal for Research in Mathematics Education, 19, 5-19.
  4. Rizza D. (2018). A study of mathematical determination through Bertrand’s Paradox, Philosophia Mathematica, 26(3), 375–395.
  5. Sergeyev Ya.D. (2022). Some paradoxes of infinity revisited, Mediterranean Journal of Mathematics, 19, article 143.

茶歇

(S7) Evidence-based modeling

Chairman
  • Vladimir Gisin (Financial University, Russia)

List of participants
  • 11.20 – 11.45. Vladimir Gisin, Efficient market hypothesis, efficient computability hypothesis and Minsky's financial instability hypothesis (EMH, P=NP, FIH)
  • 11.45 – 12.10. Olga Pyrkina, Free-rider Problem: Simulating of System Convergence to Stable Equilibrium State by Means of Finite Markov Chain Models
  • 12.10 – 12.35. Mingzhen Huang, Will the "failure tolerance" of executives affect the total factor productivity of enterprises —— On the adjustment effect of board structure
  • 12.35 – 13.00. Changxu Duan, Research on prediction of highly cited papers based on PCA-BPNN

茶歇

(S8) Behavioral Game Theory

Chairmen
  • Vladimir Mazalov (KarRC of the RAS, Russia)
  • Suria Kumacheva (St. Petersburg State University, Russia)

List of participants
  • 14.00 – 14.25. Nadezhda Smirnova, Modelling of cooperative behavior in multistage game of renewable resource extraction
  • 14.25 – 14.50. Olga Gorbaneva and Guennady Ougolnitsky, Cognitive Simulation Model of the Regional Education System
  • 14.50 – 15.15. Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber. A Dynamic Programming Approach for a Nonzero Sum Stochastic Differential Game Problem
  • 15.15 – 15.40. Elena Konovalchikova, Price discrimination on network platforms

茶歇

(S9) Modelling of Complex Societal Problems

Chairman
  • Leonidas Sakalauskas (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Lithuania)

List of participants
  • 16.10 – 16.35. Suriya Kumacheva, Attitudes to Vaccination: How the Opinion Dynamics Affect the Influenza Epidemic Process
  • 16.35 – 17.00. Alexander Makarenko. Operational Research for Sustainable Development in Usual and Crisis Situations of Social Systems
  • 17.00 – 17.25. Vladislav Taynitskiy, Optimal lockdown policies in epidemic processes with demographic structure
  • 17.25 – 17.50. Vitalij Denisov, Aiste Dirzyte and Leonidas Sakalauskas, Modelling of Anxiety Spread During Pandemics

闭幕式和最后讨论

关于刊物

我们鼓励正在开始或发展与社会科学或计算有关的研究的研究人员,特别是年青人,介绍他们的工作,以供讨论,并参加会议期间举行的有关创意社会社会行为现象建模和模拟的挑战。

会议记录将在会议期间发表的Springer Proceedings series “Communications in Computer and Information Science” (CCIS)

由于不可预见的情况,论文集将推迟至会议结束前发表。文章提交截止日期的详细信息将于稍后发布。

参会者可以提交关于会议主题的完整论文,以在顶级期刊的特刊上发表Mathematics (MDPI)。

关于会议主题的集体专着将由全球出版商出版。 本书的标题和内容将在会议前公布. 项目,软件工具和演示的演示也是受欢迎的。

重要日期和截止日期

描述

日期

首次征稿:

– 2021年11月30日

邀请会议提案 (关于各组的建议):

– 2022年3月15日

提早缴交报名费:

– 2022年9月10日

– 2022年9月17日

会议时间:

– 2022年9月21-23日

提交论文摘要 (Springer Proceedings):

– 2022年10月21日

提交文件 (Springer Proceedings):

– 2022年11月21日

论文受理通知:

– 2022年12月12日

提交会议后期刊的全文:

– 2023年2月28日

关税计划*

线下参与

240

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线上参与

130

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290

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线上参与

150

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  • Zoom会议线上参与

* 中国专家和学生可以获得参加会议的注册费折扣。请联系组委会。
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会议转播

会议地址


Ratonda Centrum Hotels
Rotundo Str., 1,
立陶宛维尔纽斯
01110

info@msbc.tech

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